Analyzing Elections: Ohio Edition

Democrat Danny O'Connor (left) and Republican Troy Balderson (right)

Governor Ralph Northam of Virginia declared a state of emergency today ahead of the anniversary of the Charlottesville riots because of demonstrations planned throughout the weekend that have the potential to turn violent. The fact that we are treating a political rally like a hurricane shows the degradation of political discourse in this country throughout the past few years. These rallies are held by people who are at the fringes of our respective ideologies yet we are so invested and dare I say fascinated by what may happen this weekend. It�s like a middle school fight. Everybody wants to see the fight but only the most extreme and ridiculous people actually do the fighting. We are interested yet slightly repulsed by what we are seeing in front of us. We forget that the fighters are our classmates too and that we all go to the same school.

            If nobody paid attention to these rallies in Charlottesville, there would be no state of emergency. It has only been declared because people have responded to it and everybody wants to watch.

An image from last year's violent riots in Charlottesville, VA

          This week�s main story is about the special election in Ohio that happened on Tuesday and why the results are important when looking to November. To the naked eye, it looked like Tuesday night was a somewhat positive development for the Republicans because even though the race was too close to call, Republican Troy Balderson is winning by a little over a thousand votes at the time this article was published. That doesn�t look like a blue wave and the President made that same observation on Wednesday when he tweeted out, �RED WAVE!�

            When you put on the glasses of context when looking at this election, the image of a Republican victory slowly starts to look more like a win for the Democrats. Here is that context: Trump won that district by 9 points in 2016 and Democrats have not been in control of that seat for over thirty years. With that context in mind, anything less than a complete clobbering of Democrat Danny O�Connor means that the Republicans are losing a lot of swing voters and even some of their base. The fact that O�Connor might still win because of uncounted provisional ballots is a complete upset.

            It�s always important to look at the candidates in these unusual elections before making a prediction about what they mean. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Conor Lamb who won ran as a pseudo-conservative against a Republican who was unpopular and ran a campaign that was in shambles. In Alabama, Democrat Doug Jones barely scraped a victory because of Republican Roy Moore. Needless to say, just because a Democrat won in a Republican-held district does not indicate a shift in the electorate. Voters might support a candidate from a different party if their party nominates somebody crazy or extreme like a Roy Moore.

            With that said, this election does foreshadow a shift in the electorate because the ideologies of each candidate are consistent with their national party�s ideology. Both candidates were scandal-free and were supported by their respective bases with few exceptions. Balderson ran on a platform almost identical to that of President Trump and received the endorsement of incumbent Congressman Pat Tiberi.

            Democrat Danny O�Connor ran a pretty typical campaign and ran on typical Democratic policies like fighting climate change and expanding healthcare. These two candidates are accurate representations of their parties and this outcome is the most accurate foreshadowing of what November may hold thus far.

            This is foreshadowing losses for the Republicans in the midterms. This displays a frustration with Congress and the circus of the Trump presidency among voters. Congressional Republicans need to adjust their priorities in the next few months to minimize their losses in November and focus on ending the trade war started by President Trump that is costing jobs here in South Carolina and across the country.

            The news of Republican Representative Chris Collins being indicted for insider trading that broke today is not helping them at all. The GOP needs a facelift because it is currently scandal-ridden and stagnant in Congress. That�s all for this week.