Analyzing Elections: South Carolina Edition

Katie Arrington celebrating last night following her major upset victory over Mark Sanford.

In case you were not aware, the South Carolina midterm primary was held on Tuesday and a LOT of things happened. I was up until midnight on Tuesday looking through data and trying to decipher what this election means for November. I will break this article down into three sections: the gubernatorial primary, the Congressional primary, and my thoughts on what November may hold.

            In the gubernatorial primary, James Smith dominated in the Democratic field with a commanding 60% of the vote. Behind him was Marguerite Willis with 27% winning only in Darlington County, close to where she lives. Phil Noble came in last with a lethargic 10% of the vote. Last night was a good night for the Democrats because it showed that the party was mostly behind one candidate and it was good for Smith because he was able to avoid a runoff. The biggest disappointment in this race was Noble who was polling equal to Smith earlier this year. His decline, from what I have observed, was due to his constant, seemingly desperate attacks against Smith for things that were easily debunked. For example, on Monday Smith rented a small plane with campaign money to travel around the state one last time before the election. Noble�s campaign tweeted that, �James Smith calls himself a governor for all of us � how many South Carolinians do you know can tote around SC in a private jet?�

           

In the Republican primary, things were more exciting. Governor McMaster and Greenville businessman John Warren will face each other in a run-off in two weeks after McMaster, who won with 42% of the vote, was unable to get to 50% of Republican voters on his side. This result surprised me because I thought Catherine Templeton had a much greater chance against McMaster because she ran a solid campaign and was much more energetic and charismatic than Warren. Templeton and Warren have virtually identical platforms so the reason that Warren was able to beat her by 6% is unbeknownst to me. Perhaps it was her confusing and slightly annoying �conservative buzzsaw� nickname that turned Republican voters away. It will be interesting to see where her voters go two weeks from now. I think the majority will go to Warren because she ran such an anti-McMaster campaign and they have virtually identical views. The question is, will enough of her voters back Warren to give him the upper hand over McMaster?  

            Those who voted for Bryant and McGill will most likely back McMaster in the run-off considering they were more traditional candidates and McMaster is the most traditional candidate in the race now. If every Templeton voter and every Warren voter shows up in two weeks and votes for Warren, he will have 49% of the vote. If every McGill (all one of them) and Bryant voter show up and vote for McMaster, he will have 50% of the vote. It will be tight. The variables to consider here are turnout and the percentage of Templeton voters that back Warren.

            

Democratic Congressional Candidate Joe Cunningham

In the Congressional primaries, the Democrats had a pretty smooth night. Joe Cunningham won decisively over Toby Smith in District 1 and Archie Parnell easily won in District 2. Parnell has been told to drop out of the race by virtually everybody in the South Carolina Democratic Party after he admitted to domestically abusing his wife back in 1973. His persistence is creating a Roy Moore situation here in South Carolina with a candidate who is doing severe damage to the party.

            On the Republican side, things got really interesting. The biggest upset of the night came from the 1^st District race where Katie Arrington defeated Mark Sanford. Arrington�s victory is a signal that the Republican party in South Carolina has moved further to the right and is now the party of Trump. Three hours before the polls closed, President Trump tweeted out his endorsement of Arrington, which was more an attack on Sanford who he said was �better off in Argentina.� The timing of this tweet makes one wonder if Trump had gotten a tip that Arrington was going to win and wanted to be a part of it or if he sporadically decided to endorse a candidate at the last second. The second option is very possible.

Mark Sanford hugging one of his sons after his concession speech on Tuesday.

            The next question is, �What does this mean?�

            This means that the Republican party in South Carolina is now the party of Trump and has abandoned traditional Republican ideals. Sanford was not a bad candidate and last night was his first loss ever. He only spoke out against Trump during a few occasions and sided with him on most issues. He thought for himself which Republican voters decided that they did not like. They want somebody who will fall in line and be an enabler for the President. I think that is a shame and destructive for the party in the long run.

            Looking ahead to November, it will be a long shot for Joe Cunningham to beat Katie Arrington, even though she is so far to the right. Arrington received roughly 33,000 votes compared to Cunningham�s 23,000. You can go ahead and add 1,024 votes to Cunningham because Dimitri Cherny ran in the Republican primary as a liberal and his supporters will undoubtedly back Cunningham. Add an additional 9,000 to Cunningham because of Toby Smith�s voters who will undoubtedly back him. Mark Sanford received approximately 30,000 votes last night. I predict that the majority of those voters will back Arrington because of party loyalty. There will be a faction of Sanford voters and traditional Republicans who will side with Cunningham out of disgust with Arrington. I am guessing his voters will go 75% to Arrington and 25% to Cunningham. That means that Cunningham will gain around 7,500 votes and Arrington will gain around 22,500 votes. If my vague estimates work out, then Cunningham will lose with 40,500 votes to Arrington�s 55,500 votes or 42% to 58%. I am in no way a political analyst so my numbers and estimations could be completely off. However, if these estimations turn out to be correct, the only way for Cunningham to have a chance would be for a large Democratic turnout in November. If I were him, I would be targeting young people because they generally vote to the left. The African-American vote will also be crucial for Cunningham to have a chance. This race is not over, but it will take a lot of work for Cunningham to win. According to my numbers, he has to have a net gain of 9% to win in November. That is 8,640 votes. This will be a race to watch this November.

            Tuesday�s turnout was 20% statewide which is good for a primary. Republicans turned out 367,036 voters and Democrats turned out 239,000 voters. Since Democratic turnout is generally higher in general elections than in primaries compared to the Republicans, this is a good sign for the Democrats. That�s all for this week.