Analyzing Elections: Pennsylvania Edition

It�s been a really busy week for me. Perhaps the busiest week that I have experienced in my seventeen years on this planet. However, the blog continues on despite the stresses of daily life. I would like to plug an event that has been the source of my stress this week before I get into the contents of tonight�s blog. There will be a March For Our Lives on Saturday, March 24^th from 3:30 to 6:30 at Riverfront Park in North Charleston. I will be speaking at the event and I encourage you to come out and join the Never Again movement. That�s all I have to say about that, for now.

            There was a special election in Pennsylvania last night and since I heartily enjoy covering election results, I decided that I would cover it on this week�s blog. Democrat Conor Lamb narrowly defeated Republican Rick Saccone in a district where President Trump won by a comfortable margin of 20 points. The race was so close that it has not been called as of Wednesday night, one day after the last votes were cast. As of right now, Lamb is winning with 113,813 votes to 113,186. That�s about as close as it can get.

            We�ve heard this story before: A Democrat winning by a narrow margin in a district that is heavily Republican. When assessing the implications of this victory one must look at three things: The Democrat, the Republican, and the margin.

            The Democrat in this case was a centrist. He supports gun rights and has declared his personal opposition to abortion, though he supports the woman�s ability to choose. He�s a Marine and none of his views are very extreme. He�s a moderate Democrat which is important to consider. It�s not like the voters in Pennsylvania have suddenly had a change in ideology, they are simply disenchanted with the performance of the GOP.

            The Republican in this case never had much momentum. He was beaten by Lamb in fundraising and he was unable to excite Republican voters or secure voters on the fence. It�s also important to take into account the President�s approval rating in Pennsylvania, which is still relatively high compared to the rest of the country. However, even after President Trump showed up to campaign for Saccone in Pennsylvania (and deemed Conor Lamb as �Lamb the Sham�), it was not enough to sway voters. You might be asking yourself, �Why didn�t Saconne win if President Trump is still somewhat popular in the region?�

           

Former Representative Tim Murphy (R)

Well, like in Alabama and Missouri, scandal engulfed the Republican party in the district where the election was held. In fact, the reason that this election ever took place was because of a scandal. Republican Congressman Tim Murphy resigned last year after encouraging his mistress to have an abortion even though he has publicly stated that he is pro-life. It created a bit of a pickle for the man, to say the least. Long story short, he resigned and since the reputation of the GOP was damaged by the scandal, it gave the Democrats a bump in popularity going in to Tuesday night.

            Last but not least, the margin of victory was incredibly small in this race. Lamb and Saccone were only separated by a few hundred votes. Even though this result is significantly different than it was in 2016, it is safe to say that the electorate is divided and that there is no clear majority. This race is reminiscent of the other cases of Democratic victories over the past year in Virginia, New Jersey, Missouri, and Alabama. The big question is, �Will there be a blue wave?�

            As I see more and more of these cases arise in places that Trump won decisively in 2016, my skepticism of the wave diminished. But before Democrats get too excited, keep in mind that they are not winning these elections because of their policies. They are winning because of the unpopularity of the GOP and every Democratic victory has featured a moderate candidate. It�s important to keep that in mind as November approaches.