Analyzing Elections: Missouri Edition

This has been a busy week both locally and nationally. Here in South Carolina another Democrat entered the gubernatorial race, Republican gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton bragged about her families �confederate roots,� a prominent Black Lives Matter leader from Charleston was shot and killed in New Orleans, and a train crash near Columbia killed two people and injured over 170 passengers. Nationally� well, I think if I were to try and make a list of what has happened over this past week on the national level I would be here for a while. Instead I�ll just a list a few topics I considered discussing on this week�s blog.

1.     The President ordering a military parade (like any good totalitarian should).

2.     The bipartisan deal reached by the Senate (and Nancy Pelosi�s really really long speech).

3.     The memo war (how it accomplished nothing).

4.     The gerrymandering fiasco in Pennsylvania (the Republicans would rather impeach their state�s supreme court than play by the rules. It�s part of their strategy to winning elections: cheating.).

5.     The stock market (the roller coaster ride we experienced this week).

6.     The super cool Space X launch (why privatizing space exploration was a great move).

Democrat Mike Revis (left) and Republican David Linton (right)

I decided not to talk about any of those things because there was an election in Missouri last night and I heartily enjoy analyzing elections and polls. There were four seats up for grabs last night in the Show Me State. Republicans held on to three of those seats and the Democrats won the other. While this may seem like a victory for Republicans because they won 75% of the elections last night, they actually lost a seat in the state legislature because all of the seats were previously Republican held. It is also important to note that in the district that Democrat Mike Revis won by 4%, Donald Trump won by 28% in the 2016 presidential election. That is a 32% difference.

            Democrats across the country reacted with glee and excitement upon receiving the news of this victory. The Huffington Post and CNN have said that this election along with other elections where Democrats have won throughout the past year are precursors to a �blue wave� that will arrive during the midterm elections in November.

            This is the 35^th time since President Trump�s election that a Democrat has flipped a Republican-held seat at the state or national level. The most notable was the gubernatorial election in Virginia last November and the Senate race in Alabama last December. Both were high-stakes events that gave the Democrats a lot of momentum going into 2018.

            Now, there are some factors one should consider before getting TOO excited about this �blue wave� expected to flood the political system later this year.

1.     Voter turnout was very low in Missouri last night.

Revis won the election by around 1,800 votes in a race where only 3,500 were cast. That is an incredibly small sample of the population. Revis only needed to invigorate a few thousand people to win this election. He did not need to attract a multitude of voters like other Democrats will need to in order to win seats in the House and Senate. Voter turnout in special elections are generally lower than in regularly scheduled elections because they get in the way of people�s jobs and day-to-day activities. During midterm elections, the entire country is voting so it is treated as a holiday of sorts. The country will not shut down because of an election in a single district.

2.     Democrats won in Alabama and Missouri not because of the popularity of their candidates but the scandalous and incompetent behavior of their Republican opponents.

Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in Alabama. Yes, it was a big win and it was a victory with major implications. But it�s not like Jones beat a popular, mainstream Republican. He beat an accused pedophile with policies that were too far right for even the deeply conservative state of Alabama. Like I said back in December, �Doug Jones did not win last night�s election, Roy Moore lost it.�

      The same goes for the race in Missouri. While Revis�s opponent, David Linton, was a mainstream conservative, his campaign was overshadowed by the looming scandal involving the

Missouri Governor Eric Greitins

Republican governor who recently admitted to engaging in an extramarital affair. The accusations made by the woman involved in the affair alleges that Governor Eric Greitins tied her up, slapped her, and then blackmailed her so she would remain quiet about the encounter. It�s put a bit of a damper on the Republican party in the area, to say the least. There�s no doubt that the scandal had an effect on last night�s election.

      Maybe I�m being pessimistic but I am skeptical of the blue wave that the Democrats are talking about. I think the Democrats will have a net gain in seats in the House and Senate but I do not know if it will be enough to retake the majority, especially in the Senate. It all depends on turnout. If the Democrats show up to vote across the board like never before, then yes there will be a blue wave. If turnout is low, the blue wave might end up being a little blue splash. That�s all for this week.