A Glance at the 2018 Gubernatorial Race

Top Row: Catherine Templeton (left), Henry McMaster, James Smith (right)
Bottom Row: Kevin Bryant (left), Yancey McGill, Phil Noble (right)

It�s been a busy week. I�ll start off with an update on the offshore drilling debacle that I discussed on last week�s blog. As of a few hours ago, Governor McMaster appealed, for the second time, to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and his �good friend� President Trump to remove South Carolina from the list of states whose coastlines will be opened up to oil drilling under a new proposal. The hesitance of Zinke to respond to McMaster does not bode well for those against oil drilling in our state. It�s astonishing to me that Zinke moved so quickly to spare Florida but has yet to answer the calls of the rest of the states effected by the proposal.

            In other news, Senator Jeff Flake gave a powerful speech on the floor of the Senate today. Fox News called it �absurd� while CNN stated that Flake �ripped� President Trump. I thought it was well-said and refreshing and you can read the entire speech without commentary from either CNN, Fox News, myself, or any other media outlet here.

            Tonight�s main story is about the gubernatorial race here in South Carolina. It is a race that I will be covering this year along with the other midterm elections in the area. A few months ago, I interviewed the two Democratic candidates for governor and discussed their side of the race. The Republican side is just as (if not more) exciting. However, we have some polls to look at first.

            Democrats: (among Democratic voters)

            -Phil Noble: 25%

            -James Smith: 20.4%

            -Other: 20.6%

            -Undecided: 33.5%

            Republicans: (among Republican voters)

            -Henry McMaster (incumbent): 40%

            -Kevin Bryant: 11%

            -Catherine Templeton: 8%

            -Yancey McGill: 3%

            -Other: 10%

            -Undecided: 28%

Source: Trafalgar Group 

            The biggest surprise I observed in this data was that Phil Noble is ahead of James Smith. After observing the two speak in front of a crowd of Democrats, I was sure that Smith was way more popular than Noble based on the initial reaction to the candidates. Smith received thunderous applause and cheers and said everything that the crowd wanted to hear. Noble was treated skeptically by the crowd, but eventually it became evident that he was beginning to grow on them. Noble is by no means an insider candidate. He even criticized the Democrats for a brief instant in the speech that I witnessed which drew silence from the crowd. The fact that he is an outsider might be a factor in his recent popularity. This data can lead one to believe that the Democrats want to run a different candidate if they want to have a chance in this deeply red state.

A Templeton campaign poster from last year.

            On the Republican side, McMaster is dominating as expected. The results for Catherine Templeton, the most controversial candidate in the race, were a bit underwhelming considering her impressive fundraising last year. Unless McMaster seriously angers his Republican base between now and the Republican primary in June, he will secure the nomination with ease. Templeton is more of a fringe candidate because not enough of the South Carolina electorate is as far right as she is. She has distinguished herself as the Trumpian candidate of this election despite President Trump�s endorsement of McMaster. This automatically alienates her from a sector of Republicans. Appearing with Steve Bannon in Charleston last year may have proven to be a misstep considering the relationship between President Trump and Bannon at the moment. That action may have alienated another sector of the party. There are not many Republicans who are fans of Steve Bannon right now so she would be smart to distance herself from him.

            Another element of this data that is important is the percentage of undecided voters in both parties. It�s the biggest group of voters for the Democrats and the runner up for the Republicans. While a portion of these voters are undecided because the race is still in its early stages and many people are not familiar with the candidates, there are still a lot of people who are genuinely undecided on both sides of the aisle. There is still a lot of time before the primaries so it is hard to gauge who those undecided voters will support. While this data is just a single poll in the early stages of this race, it is important to point out that Trafalgar was one of the few polling companies that predicted Trump to win the presidential election in 2016.

            The bigger question that remains is whether the Democrats will have a chance to flip this seat. There is a lot of energy within the party right now but will it be enough to convert a large sector of independents? Their best hope would be for Templeton to win the GOP nomination (a long shot) and run a moderate-style campaign to attract moderate Republicans.

            Who knows? I could be completely wrong. I guess we will find out in November. That�s all for this week.